diff --git a/src/fu-progressbar.c b/src/fu-progressbar.c
index f34e3f638..9d147089e 100644
--- a/src/fu-progressbar.c
+++ b/src/fu-progressbar.c
@@ -103,6 +103,22 @@ fu_progressbar_erase_line(FuProgressbar *self)
 	g_print("\033[G");
 }
 
+static gboolean
+_fu_status_is_predictable(FwupdStatus status)
+{
+	if (status == FWUPD_STATUS_DEVICE_ERASE)
+		return TRUE;
+	if (status == FWUPD_STATUS_DEVICE_VERIFY)
+		return TRUE;
+	if (status == FWUPD_STATUS_DEVICE_READ)
+		return TRUE;
+	if (status == FWUPD_STATUS_DEVICE_WRITE)
+		return TRUE;
+	if (status == FWUPD_STATUS_DOWNLOADING)
+		return TRUE;
+	return FALSE;
+}
+
 static gboolean
 fu_progressbar_estimate_ready(FuProgressbar *self, guint percentage)
 {
@@ -116,6 +132,10 @@ fu_progressbar_estimate_ready(FuProgressbar *self, guint percentage)
 		return FALSE;
 	}
 
+	/* allow-list things that make sense... */
+	if (!_fu_status_is_predictable(self->status))
+		return FALSE;
+
 	old = self->last_estimate;
 	elapsed = g_timer_elapsed(self->time_elapsed, NULL);
 	self->last_estimate = elapsed / percentage * (100 - percentage);